Betting markets for political outcomes are relatively new - and fair to say - not really proven. Polymarket, the highest profile of these, found fame because bettors on the platform favoured Donald Trump, who obviously went on to win the 2024 election. But there is some controversy around the fact that such platforms are vulnerable to manipulation.

The human appetite to know what the future looks like is thousands of years old and insatiable. Oracles and augurs eventually were replaced by predictive solutions that were more evidence-based, and in the last century, data became still more sophisticated and powerful. A lot of things are more predictable, although politics often surprises.

So what are Polymarket bettors saying about Canada’s election?

A total of $39 million has been wagered so far.

On January 11, betting that Mark Carney would win would cost you $11 to win $100. If you wanted to bet that Pierre Poilievre would win, that bet would cost you $84.

Now, only weeks later, to win $100 on Carney you need to put down $77. A Poilievre flutter would cost you just $24. The betting market has mirrored what’s been evident in public opinion polls.

But there’s a new bet you can now place on Pierre Poilievre.

It’s about whether he will be Conservative leader beyond the end of this year. Only $144,000 has been wagered so far, but bettors think it’s something of a long shot that Poilievre will make it.

If you want to bet that he will hold on to his job it will cost you $34 to win $100. Betting he will lose his job costs $67 to win $100.

What’s that about?

Well in part it’s about what bettors think will happen in the election - which is that Poilievre will not come out on top. And beyond that, it’s a guess about how his Party will feel if that occurs. After spending month after month well ahead of the Liberals, the Conservatives have stalled out as the Liberals have come back.

No one but Poilievre was making the Conservative Party calls about strategy. If he wins, he will expect - and deserve - credit. If he loses, he knows enough about the Conservative Party to know that he will face a challenge, especially if the Liberals win a majority of the seats in the House of Commons.

This week, there’s a big right wing conference in Ottawa. It’s an event the Poilievre team apparently wanted to see postponed until after the election. Why? Because whatever is said will take the focus away from the Conservative election campaign.

Speakers have been invited who will tout Trump’s tariffs, including Robert Lighthizer. While organisers have decided that Lighthizer’s remarks will be behind closed doors, the inevitable questions put to conference attendees will be - how did everyone react? Was he booed? Did annexing Canada come up? Danielle Smith will speak as well - and whatever she has to say about Alberta separation will almost certainly draw some attention.

None of this is what Pierre Poilievre wants to have in the Conservative store window, heading into the final stretch of the election campaign, and with leaders debates coming up next week.

In the best of times, the Conservative Party would be pumping up the volume around this meeting, revelling in the interest in small c conservative thinking. Today, for the Poilievre campaign, it’s an uncomfortable issue to be managed, another couple of days potentially spent on the back foot.

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